Dieselgate Whistleblower warns VW, BMW and Mercedes to risk repeating errors in electric shift

On September 18, 2015, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) accused VW of installing illegal software in some of its diesel cars to hide poisonous emissions – the beginning of the “Dieselgate” scandal, which soon turned into a global problem involving many sectors.

These “defeat devices” allowed cars to meet regulatory standards during testing while emitting dangerously high levels of pollutants, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx), on the road. Formerly The International Council for Pure Transport (ICCT) has seen excessive emissions in several VW cars sold in the US and announced EPA.

For more backgrounds, read our Dieselgate scandal timeline.

Clean energy wire: Looking back, how do you rate the Dieselgate scandal? To what extent did the German automotive industry changed?

Peter Mock: At that time it looked like a huge break for politics and industry. Politicians in Germany suddenly behaved very differently and did not believe for a long time, because manufacturers – there was a great disappointment and skepticism. It also seems to be the main turning point for the automotive industry, because it was very clear at a time when Diesel was not a future and internal combustion engines were probably not likely to be. This caused many obligations to electrical mobility.

But from today’s point of view, I would say that it was as much agreement as we originally thought. Politicians and car manufacturers have returned to business as usual relatively quickly. The same old secret secret agreement between the automotive industry and politics is back. At the same time, some companies surrender from earlier obligations to electrical mobility, and in some companies there is even new hope that they can be able to continue selling their old combustion technology.

Why did companies undergo a huge risk of systematic fraud at that time?

Germans, because mainly manufacturers have arrogantly prepared for the conquest of the world with their diesel engines. They wanted to make this technology a global story about success – at all costs. At a time when Europe, and especially Germany, were the only markets where diesel was sold well. They wanted to take this success to the world.

Instead, they were to realize much earlier that diesel technology had no future. They should hold on to pure electrical mobility – as China did. To make it not even worse, they took two more detours: the first hybrids and then does not concern the hope of synthetic fuels.

But the intensive use of sensitive use of hybrid technology to build almost pure electric cars with a small reserve tank for the range of range, used the technology to strengthen the energy of the engine and the location of a really large, heavy SUV on the road. Then it turned out that in another smaller scandal it turned out that most of most hybrids were barely driven to electricity.

Companies may have lost tens of billions of euros in the scandal, but they have always had enough resources for a decisive change. Instead, they have repeatedly deviated from the long -term strategic way to electromobility.

Where does the industry stand today? German, because manufacturers introduced new electric models at IAA in Munich last week.

I believe that there is still hope for the German automotive industry because their new models and technologies are very good. The Germans, because manufacturers simply have a lot of experience in building cars – and marketing is an aspect that is not short is not unnecessary. At the same time, this paradox is that they represent great products at car showrooms such as IAA, and then a few days later the lobby against these very products in the EU in Brussels.

I believe that this contradiction stems from the fact that companies are simply too much focused on the next quarterly results-a short-time profit. This moves the long country’s long -country strategy to the background questions, such as: Where do we want to go in the long run? Where do we have to take our customers and politicians in the long run? NEITHA customers or politicians can quickly jump back and Fortth; They need to know where the day is going.

Can German manufacturers even catch up with Chinese manufacturers in terms of technology and price? Or are they out of reach?

Chinese companies are not yet out of reach, but it could happen quite quickly. Now we have some decomposition of two or three years, which the race will be decided. It is absolutely clear that electrical mobility prevails – it is simply a more attractive product. But the question is: Who will produce these electric cars in Europe in the long run?

Other environmental NGOs accuse the manufacturers of eradicating the Greens. They claim that manufacturers use IAA as a fig sheet to hide their business model of fossil fuels. Would you agree with that?

I think it’s a little broadcast. Electric vehicles presented at car showrooms, such as IAA, are a serious part of the company’s strategy and are many people and develop great products within companies that are planning strategically in companies. On the other hand, there are bean counters that have only eyes for next quarterly characters. These two factions are in competition with companies. Naturally, Iaa and other automotive performances tend to see creative, strategic people. However, you should not believe it is the opinion of the whole society.

We have just looked back in the last 10 years, now let’s look 10 years ahead. Would you like to predict what the global car market will look like?

First, we are currently a trend where the leading markets of Europe, China and the US are to start to beolated – I’m not sure if it can still be turned. Therefore, in the long run, European manufacturers can continue to have their market in Europe if they are good enough. In China, however, they will be able to do again in China or the US are very questionable.

In addition, however, there are many developing markets that are currently growing very strongly and where electrical mobility is growing in incorporation: Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey, Brazil, etc. These are all potential export markets for European manufacturers, and this should not be underestimated. We often look at China and say: Oh, they are so far forward, we can’t catch up. In addition, there are many other markets. And it is not decided who will be there. Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes Still there is an opportunity to keep up, Esperti in the upper segment of the market. For this purpose, however, the plants must offer attractive products and in these markets it definitely means electric vehicles.

Manufacturers are currently lobbying again for EU relaxation For internal combustion engines in 2035. What will the European market look like at this point and how important is the target to remain in place?

Norway provides instructive answers to this question. About ten years ago, Norway was prepared a lot where we are in the EU today. Electric cars now account for more than 90 % of new registrations in Norway. This will also be the EU case in 10 years at the latest. Regardless of the legal situation, we will be closed to 100 % of electric cars by 2035. Without strict regulation, about 90 %, otherwise, races, 100 %. In any case, electric cars will win because they will be simply a more attractive and cheaper product. Electric cars still have a huge learning curve in front of them, while internal combustion vehicles are ripe. In addition, fossil fuels are likely to perform more.

Nevertheless, the goal of the gradual discarding of internal combustion engines in 2035 is an incredibly important signal, because customers have to adapt to it. It is also important for investors. Anyone who wants to build a battery factory now needs clarity that all cars will be electric in 2035.

There will soon be another summit of cars on the Chancellor. What should happen there?

It is an illusion to believe that Germany can now save the internal combustion engine. This decision will not be made in Germany or Europe, but around the world – and the trend clearly points to electric cars. No matter what he decides in Germany – we cannot decide where the combustion vehicle will still be sold in 20 or 30 years.

It would be much wiser to recognize the transition to electrical mobility at the beginning and then ask: How are we located? How can we ensure that we not only survive in this market, but form it as a leader? What do we have to do? How can we bring batteries to Europe or Germany? How can we ensure resource security? And so on.

These strategic questions make much more sense than to think about how to delay CO2 regulation at European level. It won’t do anything. It’s a head strategy.

Pure energy wire. Reproduced with permission.