Tesla’s US sales are on track for a very bad 2025
With the EV tax break officially over, sales of electrified vehicles are expected to take a beating this quarter. Even Tesla — which has proven relatively resilient to competitive pressure and sales woes — won’t come out without a few scratches.
Mandatory auto reading and tech briefing, every weekend.
Welcome back to Critical materialsyour daily overview of all things electrical and technical in the automotive space. Also on board: China’s war on pop-up door handles takes shape, and Tesla says you don’t need to worry about threats to ban sales in California. Let’s get to it.
25%: Tesla sales down 8.9% for 2025, Cox says
With more competition than ever, an aging lineup and buyers feeling politically betrayed, Tesla entered 2025 at a disadvantage. That struggle continued throughout the year, placing Tesla well below the market average in terms of year-over-year sales growth.
According to sales estimates released Wednesday by Cox Automotive, Tesla’s 2025 U.S. sales are on track for an 8.9% year-over-year decline — from about 634,000 vehicles in 2024 to about 577,000 in 2025. And if you zoom in and check that quarter-on-quarter performance is likely to improve, it’s likely will improve.
The whole picture points to a bleak 2025 as a whole, with Tesla’s Q4 sales down a staggering 29.8% compared to Q3 and 22.4% compared to Q4 last year. This isn’t necessarily indicative of Tesla’s overall performance compared to the competition, but rather a broader picture of how the EV market as a whole is responding to the loss of government incentives.
Tesla tried to combat this slide by launching more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y earlier this year; however, these stripped-down versions failed to attract the sales that Tesla had hoped for.
Cox points out that the EV market artificially stepped on the gas in Q3, with buyers looking to take advantage of EV tax credits while they still could. Demand has since fallen off a cliff and EV inventory tripled from just 40 days of market supply at the end of the third quarter to 149 days in November (that’s an increase of more than 42% year-on-year).
One big reason is affordability, says Cox. Specifically, it points out that most EVs fall into the premium segment and that only 9 EV models on the market are available for less than $40,000, compared to 56 ICE models. Cox says this represents a “fundamental gap in availability”. It says only 3.7% of total EV sales were under $40,000 since October, compared to 38.7% across powertrains.
50%: Cruise’s scars build GM’s future in personal autonomy
GM decided that if you want to learn hard and expensive lessons, you might as well reuse them wherever possible. After ending its Cruise robotaxi efforts last year, GM decided to redirect those resources to putting autonomous features into cars that ordinary people can actually own.
Automotive news has the scoop on how GM’s new fleet of test cars, plus Cruise staff experience, are paving the way for eyes-free driving. The automaker equipped 48 Cadillac Escalade IQ EVs and 90 GMC Yukons to collect driving data across the country. The outlet explains what these test cars are doing out there:
In addition to Cruise’s technical expertise, scaling the eyeless driver assistance system requires GM’s manufacturing know-how. The test fleet will provide information on where to place the cameras, how to scale the installation and how to make the vehicles practical for everyday use at a price customers can afford.
Unlike a robotaxi fleet, personally owned vehicles don’t return to a central depot where they can be maintained and replenished nightly, said (Jason Ekelmann, manager of the advanced vehicle integration team at General Motors), who has a background in robotics and whose GM career includes work on autonomy and advanced driver assistance systems.
They must also have the external sensors wrapped in a way that protects them from rain or snow when parked outside.
GM hopes to deploy Super Cruise to the Cadillac Escalade IQ by 2028 and eventually expand the system to more GM brands, platforms and vehicle segments. GM is betting that using Cruise’s experience in this area will allow it to meet that goal, so it’s ramping up its testing efforts.
That’s a real shift—finding out exactly what fits (and doesn’t) in personal autonomy versus Cruise’s robotic past on a commercial level. Building something boring enough to appease regulators and exciting enough to make consumers jump at the opportunity to buy.
75%: China’s door handle safety regulations are taking shape
China has declared war on electronic pop-up door handles after major crashes in the country cast doubt on the futuristic hardware. News of potential regulation has been swirling for months, and now regulators have released draft legislation that would seriously crack down on how automakers can implement the technology in future models.
The proposed rules were published on Wednesday and would require cars to be equipped with easily accessible mechanical door openers inside and outside. That would mean any tech-centric automaker doing business in China that has deployed the technology — like Tesla, Xiaomi and others — would have to make a fix before the final version of the ruling takes effect.
Car News China to summarize what to expect:
The draft standard, titled Safety Technical Requirements for Automotive Handles, according to the ministry, mandates that every side door, with the exception of the tailgate, be equipped with a mechanically released exterior door handle.
The design must allow occupants or emergency responders to open the door without the use of tools after irreversible deployment of the restraint system or battery heat spread events. Vehicles with an electronically controlled or automatically activated door locking system must still allow mechanical release, even if the locking system remains engaged during such events.
The proposal states that external door handles must be located in defined accessible areas on the door or adjacent door frame, depending on the type of door opening. Sufficient manual clearance must always be maintained to provide mechanical release, even in the event of a power outage or system failure.
Exterior door handles are not the only focus. Beijing also focuses on internal cranks by paving the way for mechanical latches, both of which are easy to spot and easy access.
The problem of electronic door handles with no mechanical backup is not limited to China. Tesla has come under fire in the US for similar technology that may not work in a crash or no-power scenario. HAS Bloomberg investigation and subsequent government probe put it under the microscope.
100%: Who Will Win the Eyeless Personal Autonomy Race?
Automakers are refocusing their efforts on autonomy, and the first company to bring eyes-free extended autonomy to market will reap immense rewards. At first glance, you might assume Tesla is the closest, but I’m not so sure. Which car manufacturer do you think will win the race?